* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/15/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 30 28 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 30 28 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 31 28 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 4 3 3 7 12 19 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 121 137 177 249 268 245 249 248 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.5 25.5 24.7 24.6 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 134 134 127 116 107 106 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 46 46 45 43 39 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -3 -4 0 -10 -12 -27 -34 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 12 4 13 15 16 -4 -36 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 6 4 5 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 906 918 916 917 924 970 1025 1088 1134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.4 19.7 19.8 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.8 117.3 117.9 118.5 119.7 120.6 121.4 122.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 9 10 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -20. -19. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.2 116.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 19.1% 13.7% 13.4% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.2% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.5% 5.4% 4.7% 0.1% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##