* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/15/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 29 28 28 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 28 28 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 28 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 17 9 3 2 6 9 21 21 22 20 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 -3 -4 -7 -6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 108 124 132 128 185 281 231 256 254 257 256 267 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.3 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 139 137 134 127 121 113 107 107 108 109 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -55.0 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 47 48 46 47 43 38 34 30 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 11 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 23 7 1 4 1 0 -15 -25 -25 -25 -25 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 13 13 8 0 30 24 -18 -18 -4 -1 -20 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 4 3 4 6 4 1 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 978 960 944 952 949 957 968 1004 1042 1091 1162 1270 1375 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.6 19.3 18.7 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.1 116.4 116.9 117.4 118.5 119.4 120.2 120.8 121.3 121.9 122.7 123.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 12 10 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. -28. -26. -24. -23. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.0 115.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.14 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 12.4% 10.6% 6.7% 0.0% 11.3% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.2% 3.6% 2.2% 0.0% 3.8% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##