* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 42 44 42 42 41 42 40 37 33 28 22 22 22 22 23 V (KT) LAND 40 42 42 44 42 42 41 42 40 37 33 28 22 22 22 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 46 46 43 40 36 32 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 20 21 11 5 2 4 8 17 17 18 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 3 7 5 2 1 2 -2 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 94 107 116 115 61 349 273 269 255 253 256 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.5 25.6 24.9 24.5 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 143 139 136 126 117 109 104 100 99 99 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 51 52 48 49 49 46 44 41 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 16 16 14 14 12 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 59 49 36 14 0 -15 -22 -39 -33 -28 -29 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 24 23 31 22 1 -32 0 7 -13 -34 -8 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -1 0 0 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1070 986 904 848 793 730 696 656 649 663 687 704 722 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.7 19.5 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.0 21.0 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.5 115.4 115.2 115.2 115.1 115.4 115.9 116.3 116.7 117.2 117.6 117.8 118.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 20 10 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. -0. -3. -7. -12. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 115.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/14/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 18.1% 14.3% 10.0% 0.0% 14.8% 13.6% 12.1% Logistic: 0.6% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.9% 5.2% 3.5% 0.1% 5.3% 4.7% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/14/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##