* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP152013 10/13/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 48 48 48 47 44 38 31 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 45 48 48 48 47 44 38 31 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 45 48 49 49 46 40 33 29 25 23 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 10 13 15 19 25 31 33 37 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 2 2 0 1 0 0 -1 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 123 157 157 180 215 223 227 247 245 243 242 252 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.0 24.9 24.3 24.8 24.8 24.5 25.3 27.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 137 131 123 110 104 109 108 104 112 131 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 75 71 67 59 52 49 46 44 44 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 13 13 13 12 8 6 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 17 23 24 31 14 7 13 -2 0 -14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 51 61 50 55 25 34 29 10 4 18 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 9 11 8 11 9 10 6 6 0 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 665 615 542 477 432 350 226 98 10 10 -30 -13 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.2 21.7 22.9 24.0 24.8 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.3 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.3 113.1 112.7 112.4 112.2 111.8 111.3 110.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 6 6 5 4 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -10. -17. -21. -24. -25. -27. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. -2. -9. -17. -21. -25. -27. -29. -32. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.6 110.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152013 OCTAVE 10/13/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 29.6% 24.2% 18.4% 12.8% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.7% 26.3% 16.0% 9.0% 2.1% 5.0% 1.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 6.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.7% 19.4% 13.6% 9.3% 5.0% 7.6% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 OCTAVE 10/13/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##