* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 24 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 24 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 24 22 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 18 17 16 20 22 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -3 -4 -3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 277 278 277 278 287 278 285 318 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 126 125 123 119 119 121 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 48 48 46 44 39 38 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 0 2 9 11 5 1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -48 -34 -31 -20 -28 -36 -51 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1812 1842 1873 1909 1945 2009 2081 2145 2209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.5 129.0 129.5 129.9 130.6 131.3 131.9 132.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 19. 18. 18. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -9. -13. -19. -23. -25. -27. -28. -27. -27. -25. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 127.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/09/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/09/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##