* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 57 54 50 47 43 36 34 30 28 27 27 25 23 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 57 54 50 47 43 36 34 30 28 27 27 25 23 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 57 56 53 49 43 38 32 28 25 23 21 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 4 4 5 7 5 10 10 18 18 19 11 14 23 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 2 0 2 5 4 7 3 4 3 3 0 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 72 36 318 332 260 261 236 260 272 304 331 339 329 284 280 277 281 SST (C) 26.7 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 127 128 130 131 128 125 123 123 124 126 129 127 130 131 129 130 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 50 53 53 53 49 42 35 32 28 26 25 26 30 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 17 17 18 17 15 15 14 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 10 13 9 20 24 29 32 32 35 43 48 44 28 28 24 200 MB DIV 22 17 22 7 0 1 5 -6 -25 -36 -46 -55 -8 -3 -10 -10 6 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 0 1 1 0 2 2 1 2 2 2 4 3 4 LAND (KM) 1715 1776 1842 1886 1922 1989 2035 2075 2132 2189 2264 2245 2102 1934 1766 1594 1432 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.6 126.6 127.4 128.2 129.4 130.1 130.6 131.3 132.0 132.9 133.9 135.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 5 2 3 3 4 4 6 8 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 1 2 3 3 2 1 0 1 1 2 1 6 6 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. -1. -5. -8. -12. -19. -21. -25. -27. -28. -28. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.5 124.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/08/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 5.5% 5.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 10.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/08/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##