* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 31 31 31 28 25 20 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 31 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 25 30 38 44 49 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 2 1 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 247 235 229 230 230 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 142 142 145 138 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 122 123 124 127 121 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -55.1 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 2 3 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 52 52 47 43 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 2 25 16 38 58 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 40 48 45 21 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 2 -5 -16 -6 -10 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 139 76 50 33 126 57 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.8 90.9 90.0 88.9 87.8 85.4 83.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 20 20 23 33 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 798 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. -4. -13. -21. -29. -37. -41. -46. -52. -56. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.2 91.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/06/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.7 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/06/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/06/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 31 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 30 30 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 26 26 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT