* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/06/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 37 36 34 33 30 27 24 24 23 22 21 20 20 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 37 36 34 33 30 27 24 24 23 22 21 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 26 27 30 38 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 264 248 232 230 226 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 139 136 139 138 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 119 118 121 121 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.9 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 2 0 2 2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 51 50 47 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 7 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -22 -2 18 10 47 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 38 41 46 34 9 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 9 3 -5 -9 -9 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 154 90 37 25 47 70 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.9 91.3 90.7 89.6 88.6 86.1 83.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 21 17 16 25 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -5. -12. -19. -26. -32. -36. -39. -44. -48. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.1 91.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/06/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.15 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 8.1% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/06/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/06/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 38 37 36 34 33 30 27 24 24 23 22 21 20 20 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 36 35 33 32 29 26 23 23 22 21 20 19 19 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 32 31 29 28 25 22 19 19 18 17 16 15 15 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT