* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 34 34 40 38 34 26 24 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 34 34 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 28 28 28 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 28 21 23 27 34 43 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -6 0 -2 0 2 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 290 280 257 263 232 215 198 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.7 24.4 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 147 143 140 134 103 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 126 125 123 123 119 92 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 7 4 3 1 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 48 49 53 52 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 12 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -96 -68 -34 -25 -11 34 53 105 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 31 39 54 49 59 49 41 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 5 1 1 8 3 11 -14 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 226 170 114 60 52 -138 -202 -207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.6 29.8 31.5 33.5 35.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.1 91.0 90.9 90.5 90.0 88.2 85.7 82.7 79.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 8 12 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 32 32 30 22 28 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -10. -19. -25. -31. -35. -39. -45. -49. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. 1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -0. 5. 3. -1. -9. -11. -15. -17. -19. -23. -25. -28. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.6 91.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 9.5% 6.0% 4.5% 3.8% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.5% 2.2% 1.6% 1.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/05/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 33 34 34 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 35 40 32 29 28 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 37 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 30 22 19 18 18 18 18 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT