* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 44 45 45 45 41 36 34 32 30 29 27 26 25 24 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 44 45 45 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 42 41 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 31 28 22 22 23 37 39 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -5 -1 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 277 283 279 256 256 224 215 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.8 26.4 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 149 144 135 119 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 128 129 127 125 119 104 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 10 8 2 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 46 47 51 52 48 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -89 -78 -49 -26 7 39 57 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 40 31 33 36 46 43 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 14 2 0 1 6 2 0 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 334 279 224 167 114 57 -19 -217 -112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.6 27.1 27.6 28.1 29.1 30.5 32.0 33.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.3 90.4 90.5 90.3 90.0 88.5 86.3 83.7 81.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 7 10 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 38 38 39 34 32 17 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -10. -16. -21. -25. -27. -30. -33. -36. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -4. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.1 90.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.10 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 11.3% 7.3% 5.6% 4.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.0% 2.5% 1.9% 1.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/05/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 44 45 45 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 43 44 45 45 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 43 37 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 36 30 22 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT