* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 54 52 55 58 62 57 49 42 40 37 34 31 28 26 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 54 52 55 58 39 31 28 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 54 53 52 52 54 38 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 25 21 27 27 24 34 35 44 52 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 2 -2 -5 0 1 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 271 259 257 266 259 253 238 222 211 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.3 27.9 24.9 24.4 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 152 152 144 141 136 106 102 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 134 131 130 124 124 119 93 90 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -54.0 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 10 4 4 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 48 44 43 44 49 49 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 15 17 20 18 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -65 -61 -72 -96 -40 -17 51 64 50 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 14 22 48 34 49 45 66 39 31 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 13 7 7 13 2 12 7 5 -19 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 352 426 345 273 201 79 38 -145 -264 -271 -226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.3 28.5 29.9 31.6 33.4 35.4 37.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.5 89.8 90.1 90.1 90.2 89.7 88.1 85.9 83.5 81.0 78.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 8 11 13 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 39 40 39 40 27 35 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -23. -30. -32. -35. -38. -40. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -3. 0. 3. 7. 2. -6. -13. -15. -18. -21. -24. -27. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.5 89.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.11 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 363.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 11.1% 7.2% 5.6% 4.8% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.9% 2.5% 2.0% 1.6% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/04/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 54 52 55 58 39 31 28 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 52 55 58 39 31 28 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 49 52 55 36 28 25 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 46 49 30 22 19 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT