* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 58 58 59 61 59 66 68 66 56 48 41 38 36 34 31 V (KT) LAND 50 55 58 58 59 61 59 66 43 32 28 27 28 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 60 62 63 62 60 61 42 31 28 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 19 22 23 26 26 35 35 42 47 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 1 6 -1 0 -3 -5 -3 2 -2 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 256 249 260 260 247 266 235 245 220 214 205 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.0 24.1 23.3 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 157 160 158 156 150 146 143 137 126 100 95 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 144 145 142 138 130 124 123 118 109 88 84 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.8 -54.7 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 8 9 7 7 1 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 52 50 47 42 44 50 52 43 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 12 13 14 13 18 19 20 17 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -22 -21 -50 -71 -72 -87 -14 20 56 51 25 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 33 32 45 24 37 17 82 50 59 30 53 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 10 8 13 15 7 6 7 15 8 -9 -14 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 49 151 265 367 371 205 81 37 -115 -333 -301 -243 -116 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 23.0 23.9 24.8 25.7 27.2 28.5 29.9 31.4 33.2 35.1 37.0 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.1 88.7 88.9 89.1 89.0 88.6 88.0 86.5 84.4 81.9 79.1 76.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 9 11 14 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 26 29 33 36 30 35 39 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -21. -27. -32. -35. -38. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. -0. 5. 6. 7. 3. 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 8. 9. 11. 9. 16. 18. 16. 6. -2. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.0 87.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/03/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 9.6% 6.9% 5.8% 8.3% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.6% 2.8% 2.6% 0.9% 6.1% 4.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 4.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.6% 4.2% 3.2% 2.2% 4.8% 4.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/03/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 58 58 59 61 59 66 43 32 28 27 28 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 50 49 52 52 53 55 53 60 37 26 22 21 22 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 47 49 47 54 31 20 16 15 16 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 43 41 48 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT