* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 32 37 42 45 44 40 37 36 35 35 35 34 35 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 32 37 42 45 44 40 37 36 35 35 35 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 28 28 28 31 34 36 36 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 13 12 19 23 22 24 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -6 -4 -2 -4 -1 -3 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 326 289 276 265 244 247 245 253 246 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.8 23.3 22.5 21.2 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 117 113 111 109 106 103 93 89 83 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 102 99 97 95 92 89 81 79 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -56.9 -56.6 -57.2 -57.2 -56.8 -56.8 -57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 43 44 44 43 41 39 40 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -83 -82 -85 -74 -71 -52 -57 -69 -72 -81 -95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 2 4 5 28 9 10 13 26 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 7 3 10 0 7 8 2 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2097 2081 2071 2083 2102 2102 1974 1888 1767 1545 1347 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.3 33.1 34.1 35.3 36.6 37.9 39.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.9 40.8 39.8 38.5 37.2 34.7 32.7 31.0 29.1 26.9 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 12 10 10 9 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 12. 15. 14. 10. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.0 41.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/03/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.71 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.18 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 11.1% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.4% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/03/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 30 32 37 42 45 44 40 37 36 35 35 35 34 35 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 37 42 45 44 40 37 36 35 35 35 34 35 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 34 39 42 41 37 34 33 32 32 32 31 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 32 35 34 30 27 26 25 25 25 24 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT