* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 42 46 48 49 52 47 46 45 45 45 44 45 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 42 46 48 49 52 47 46 45 45 45 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 37 39 43 45 46 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 4 11 17 22 22 24 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 -5 -3 -3 -1 -2 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 342 339 298 262 241 252 260 264 259 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.0 23.6 23.1 21.8 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 114 114 111 108 105 95 92 86 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 99 99 99 97 94 91 83 81 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.5 -56.6 -56.5 -56.6 -56.4 -56.6 -57.0 -56.7 -56.5 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 42 42 42 43 41 39 41 39 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -78 -82 -81 -81 -70 -57 -53 -59 -68 -46 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -14 -7 3 7 6 8 10 19 30 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 8 8 1 7 3 6 7 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2138 2109 2083 2080 2084 2135 2016 1879 1760 1578 1381 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.9 33.9 34.8 35.9 37.2 38.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.4 41.6 40.8 39.6 38.4 35.7 33.3 31.2 29.1 27.1 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 12 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -0. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 14. 17. 12. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.4 42.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/03/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.77 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.9% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.2% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/03/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/03/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 42 46 48 49 52 47 46 45 45 45 44 45 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 41 45 47 48 51 46 45 44 44 44 43 44 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 37 41 43 44 47 42 41 40 40 40 39 40 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 34 36 37 40 35 34 33 33 33 32 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT