* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/01/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 38 39 41 42 44 45 46 47 44 41 39 38 38 40 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 38 39 41 42 44 45 46 47 44 41 39 38 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 37 37 37 38 39 42 44 46 47 46 44 42 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 18 16 11 11 11 18 12 17 17 25 25 32 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 1 4 2 -1 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 0 -2 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 307 302 312 329 315 322 288 268 264 257 246 251 260 271 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 25.9 25.4 25.6 25.5 25.2 24.9 23.7 23.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 117 117 117 117 117 112 107 110 109 106 104 95 94 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 96 92 94 94 91 88 81 81 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.9 -56.1 -56.3 -56.1 -56.0 -56.2 -55.9 -55.7 -55.7 -56.3 -56.5 -57.2 -57.6 -58.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 34 32 34 36 41 43 48 47 45 45 42 42 38 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 11 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -24 -29 -46 -46 -50 -60 -51 -41 -47 -52 -61 -53 -61 -83 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -62 -24 2 -11 -13 10 -2 7 6 3 11 2 15 -13 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 10 9 4 8 4 -3 2 2 7 3 1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2234 2224 2213 2184 2154 2081 2016 1990 1989 2013 2062 2110 1970 1846 1729 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.4 30.3 31.1 31.8 32.5 33.2 33.9 34.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.5 43.6 43.8 43.9 44.0 44.0 43.2 41.8 40.3 38.5 36.5 34.4 32.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 3 4 6 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 28.1 43.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/01/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.3 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/01/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/01/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 38 38 39 41 42 44 45 46 47 44 41 39 38 38 40 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 40 42 43 45 46 47 48 45 42 40 39 39 41 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 39 40 42 43 44 45 42 39 37 36 36 38 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 34 36 37 38 39 36 33 31 30 30 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT