* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112013 09/30/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 46 49 51 54 55 58 59 60 57 54 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 46 49 51 54 55 58 59 60 57 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 37 38 38 39 41 44 48 53 57 57 53 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 13 15 18 18 18 15 11 13 11 15 24 35 44 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -1 2 0 -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 -3 -3 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 271 312 316 324 315 332 315 322 292 291 273 250 223 201 199 204 229 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.5 25.9 25.2 25.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 129 127 128 129 130 130 131 134 133 128 118 113 107 106 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 110 108 105 106 108 110 109 111 114 113 109 101 97 91 90 87 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -55.7 -56.3 -56.4 -56.4 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 6 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 50 46 44 41 41 44 48 49 51 51 53 46 40 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 11 11 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 11 11 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -93 -85 -70 -57 -46 -29 -25 -26 -37 -44 -53 -73 -58 -31 -31 14 26 200 MB DIV -19 -25 -27 0 -4 -37 0 -8 -11 11 -4 21 42 59 52 24 -15 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 -2 -8 -7 -4 -4 0 1 0 -1 1 1 -3 -17 -27 LAND (KM) 2116 2157 2198 2200 2203 2162 2107 2056 2067 2084 1980 1865 1786 1738 1717 1736 1774 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.4 28.4 29.5 30.8 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.3 46.9 46.5 46.4 46.4 46.7 47.3 47.9 48.1 47.9 47.2 46.2 44.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 1 1 2 3 2 4 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 31 30 30 31 28 20 16 16 11 8 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 423 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 20. 20. 21. 20. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 25. 28. 29. 30. 27. 24. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.9 47.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 ELEVEN 09/30/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.61 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.82 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 7.9% 9.6% Logistic: 5.1% 12.4% 7.9% 1.7% 0.5% 2.6% 4.0% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.8% 5.1% 0.6% 0.2% 2.9% 4.0% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 ELEVEN 09/30/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 ELEVEN 09/30/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 42 46 49 51 54 55 58 59 60 57 54 52 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 40 44 47 49 52 53 56 57 58 55 52 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 35 39 42 44 47 48 51 52 53 50 47 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 31 34 36 39 40 43 44 45 42 39 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT