* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112013 09/29/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 51 55 59 62 65 65 66 62 60 60 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 51 55 59 62 65 65 66 62 60 60 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 45 47 48 51 53 56 58 57 52 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 1 6 12 15 14 16 14 14 17 19 22 27 35 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 2 2 1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 173 213 282 306 328 326 333 301 305 265 225 210 194 198 208 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.5 26.7 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 133 132 130 128 130 130 132 131 133 133 129 120 110 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 114 112 110 107 109 110 111 111 113 113 110 104 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.3 -55.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 7 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 53 52 50 46 41 42 44 52 54 57 60 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 10 13 14 15 14 14 15 15 18 18 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -114 -101 -90 -86 -67 -37 -19 -5 -8 -15 -10 -6 -10 -8 -1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 5 -8 -34 -29 -5 -37 9 -20 7 34 14 50 30 37 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 0 0 -3 -3 -2 0 4 8 4 11 10 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1920 1989 2057 2107 2157 2192 2165 2118 2084 2080 2110 2008 1960 1960 1989 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.6 27.3 28.2 29.3 30.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.9 48.3 47.8 47.3 46.8 46.3 46.5 47.0 47.5 47.9 47.7 46.9 45.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 18 22 28 31 30 32 32 26 18 18 12 8 2 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -4. -8. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. 7. 7. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 35. 36. 32. 30. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.8 48.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.78 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.2% 9.4% 6.4% 5.4% 8.2% 10.3% 11.9% Logistic: 6.6% 23.2% 18.7% 6.5% 1.9% 11.3% 8.7% 12.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 12.6% 9.4% 4.3% 2.4% 6.5% 6.3% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 45 51 55 59 62 65 65 66 62 60 60 62 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 43 49 53 57 60 63 63 64 60 58 58 60 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 44 48 52 55 58 58 59 55 53 53 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 36 40 44 47 50 50 51 47 45 45 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT