* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/19/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 70 70 68 66 64 64 64 64 64 65 65 65 67 68 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 70 56 41 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 71 72 59 43 34 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 8 11 13 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 213 221 251 264 299 304 283 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 153 149 147 145 141 141 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -49.9 -50.0 -50.0 -50.1 -50.6 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 52 48 48 44 41 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 61 45 42 59 22 26 -2 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 35 29 14 0 -17 -4 -8 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 1 4 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 23 17 11 6 -5 -21 -31 -31 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.4 108.4 108.5 108.5 108.5 108.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 16 14 11 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 24.7 108.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/19/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 412.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.58 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.9% 36.5% 27.6% 20.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 3.5% 4.8% 1.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.5% 13.3% 10.8% 7.4% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/19/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##