* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/19/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 37 42 44 44 43 42 40 37 34 32 31 32 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 37 42 44 44 43 42 40 37 34 32 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 27 27 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 17 17 15 22 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -2 -1 0 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 334 322 313 296 221 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.6 24.1 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 122 119 113 103 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 105 105 103 100 91 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.8 -56.2 -55.9 -55.7 -55.6 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 56 56 57 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 10 9 9 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 12 26 57 65 73 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 32 42 39 59 83 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 3 15 13 -3 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1690 1618 1550 1477 1420 1373 1458 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.9 34.8 36.1 37.4 41.0 44.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.5 44.0 43.5 42.4 41.3 37.9 34.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 13 16 19 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -23. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 7. 4. 2. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.0 44.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/19/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.39 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.95 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.6% 7.7% 5.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.8% 3.1% 2.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/19/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/19/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 32 37 42 44 44 43 42 40 37 34 32 31 32 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 36 41 43 43 42 41 39 36 33 31 30 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 33 38 40 40 39 38 36 33 30 28 27 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 31 33 33 32 31 29 26 23 21 20 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT