* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/18/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 38 39 43 50 55 55 55 54 52 50 49 48 50 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 38 39 43 50 55 55 55 54 52 50 49 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 39 43 51 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 15 18 16 16 14 23 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -1 -1 -4 -4 1 1 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 316 345 357 359 322 269 234 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.9 26.6 25.6 24.3 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 120 120 123 121 114 104 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 101 101 104 105 101 93 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.9 -56.9 -56.9 -56.8 -56.1 -55.6 -55.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 55 58 55 52 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 10 11 13 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -5 -15 -13 -7 31 47 65 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -13 -12 -13 23 29 70 62 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 6 0 8 17 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1921 1856 1792 1731 1671 1549 1463 1496 1639 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.7 32.3 33.0 33.7 35.6 38.5 42.4 46.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.8 43.7 43.7 43.4 43.2 41.9 39.1 35.2 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 9 14 22 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 4 5 8 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. -0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -6. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 8. 15. 20. 20. 20. 19. 17. 15. 14. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.0 43.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.60 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 11.0% 7.7% 5.7% 4.6% 7.2% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 6.1% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 2.4% 1.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.7% 3.8% 2.4% 1.7% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 38 39 43 50 55 55 55 54 52 50 49 48 50 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 36 37 41 48 53 53 53 52 50 48 47 46 48 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 33 37 44 49 49 49 48 46 44 43 42 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 31 38 43 43 43 42 40 38 37 36 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT