* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/18/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 41 43 47 51 45 28 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 41 43 47 51 45 28 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 34 35 37 39 44 50 49 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 4 9 16 17 17 15 18 46 72 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 -2 13 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 301 323 342 343 324 304 225 200 189 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.9 26.6 25.7 23.8 21.9 14.1 11.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 120 120 122 121 114 101 93 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 100 101 100 103 104 100 91 85 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -56.9 -57.0 -56.5 -56.2 -55.9 -55.6 -52.3 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 -0.4 -1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 51 51 52 57 60 59 44 39 42 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 15 13 11 11 15 18 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 14 1 -6 0 18 29 17 60 178 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 0 -10 -11 -5 40 54 51 52 79 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 1 6 2 15 -5 -68 -242 -120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1918 1860 1802 1739 1677 1553 1452 1429 1547 1182 861 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.7 32.2 32.9 33.6 35.4 38.0 41.4 46.0 51.6 57.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.6 43.6 43.7 43.5 43.3 42.2 39.9 36.8 32.6 27.5 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 9 13 18 24 30 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 5 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -9. -19. -24. -29. -36. -40. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -5. -2. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 10. -7. -9. -13. -19. -21. -22. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.1 43.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 10.5% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.9% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 1.5% 1.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.8% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 41 43 47 51 45 28 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 40 42 46 50 44 27 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 38 42 46 40 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 31 35 39 33 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT