* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/18/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 47 54 59 60 58 56 58 61 63 67 71 75 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 47 54 52 42 44 41 43 46 49 52 56 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 43 47 51 38 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 6 5 7 2 4 6 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -1 -2 -6 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 167 196 227 222 176 235 239 248 114 181 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.7 28.4 27.2 26.9 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 167 167 165 158 144 132 129 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.1 -50.6 -50.5 -51.0 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 9 10 6 8 6 8 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 62 58 53 45 46 43 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 45 38 34 40 47 37 24 15 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -11 -13 -5 14 22 0 -12 -6 11 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 120 128 112 82 67 46 33 -2 -13 17 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.6 23.8 24.3 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.2 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.0 108.3 108.7 109.0 109.7 110.3 110.8 111.2 111.4 111.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 22 22 22 17 8 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 35. 37. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 24. 29. 30. 28. 26. 28. 31. 33. 37. 41. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.8 107.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.92 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 26.3% 23.7% 17.9% 0.0% 21.0% 24.2% 38.7% Logistic: 4.6% 19.5% 11.2% 5.1% 4.1% 5.6% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 5.7% 15.6% 11.6% 7.7% 1.4% 8.9% 8.4% 13.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##