* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/17/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 48 49 51 52 54 58 59 52 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 48 49 51 52 54 58 59 52 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 47 49 51 53 56 61 64 57 45 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 10 13 20 16 17 23 47 80 77 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -1 0 -5 5 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 287 315 322 318 333 307 299 222 203 192 194 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.0 24.6 22.1 14.9 11.4 9.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 122 122 121 120 120 116 107 94 75 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 102 102 101 101 102 102 97 86 72 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.4 -56.4 -56.7 -56.4 -55.9 -55.6 -55.6 -52.2 -50.7 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 48 52 54 58 60 58 45 43 48 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 17 16 15 13 13 14 18 21 21 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 4 -3 4 1 -6 10 39 28 63 115 131 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 5 -7 -7 0 6 38 51 63 64 62 29 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 3 2 5 3 12 3 -31 -157 -154 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2086 2020 1954 1903 1852 1743 1638 1549 1474 1558 1241 967 990 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.4 30.9 31.4 31.9 33.1 34.7 36.7 40.4 45.6 51.4 57.6 63.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.7 42.9 43.2 43.2 43.2 42.9 41.8 40.1 37.0 32.6 28.3 24.0 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 6 8 11 17 26 31 33 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -3. -14. -27. -38. -46. -51. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -4. 0. -1. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 18. 19. 12. -3. -26. -33. -37. -38. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 29.8 42.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.67 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 14.6% 9.7% 7.0% 5.8% 8.2% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 12.8% 7.4% 1.8% 0.6% 3.5% 3.8% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 9.2% 5.7% 2.9% 2.1% 3.9% 4.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 48 49 51 52 54 58 59 52 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 45 47 48 50 54 55 48 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 40 42 43 45 49 50 43 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 34 36 40 41 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT