* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/17/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 43 44 46 46 48 53 55 39 33 30 28 29 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 43 44 46 46 48 53 55 39 33 30 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 34 34 37 38 40 42 46 52 56 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 15 12 16 16 14 20 16 21 18 29 61 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -2 0 -2 0 -4 -2 0 -3 8 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 289 289 298 317 328 327 315 306 255 222 193 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.3 23.5 15.8 13.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 121 124 125 128 124 121 119 112 101 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 103 104 105 106 107 105 104 104 101 93 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.2 -56.1 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.1 -56.2 -55.6 -56.3 -53.2 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.8 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 48 48 47 48 51 55 60 58 48 40 40 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 16 15 16 14 13 12 13 16 22 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 21 15 9 0 2 -12 -5 26 17 54 72 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -3 8 11 -14 0 -4 28 48 58 62 60 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 7 3 0 1 3 5 7 17 17 22 -114 -179 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2328 2263 2199 2133 2067 1970 1863 1752 1634 1535 1576 1303 816 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.9 28.4 29.0 29.5 30.4 31.6 33.1 35.3 38.5 43.1 49.0 54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.9 43.3 43.6 43.9 44.1 44.2 43.7 42.7 40.8 38.0 33.7 28.1 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 5 5 8 11 16 24 32 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 8 10 10 9 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -13. -24. -30. -34. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -3. 4. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 11. 11. 13. 18. 20. 4. -2. -5. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.4 42.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.44 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 10.3% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 6.6% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.0% 2.6% 1.7% 1.3% 2.4% 2.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 39 43 44 46 46 48 53 55 39 33 30 28 29 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 42 43 45 45 47 52 54 38 32 29 27 28 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 38 39 41 41 43 48 50 34 28 25 23 24 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 32 34 34 36 41 43 27 21 18 16 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT