* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/16/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 65 62 60 59 59 59 59 57 56 55 52 51 50 50 V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 65 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 64 62 52 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 26 19 10 12 10 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 0 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 284 286 278 276 327 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 141 137 134 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 129 123 120 118 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -50.8 -51.4 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 11 11 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 79 80 79 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 13 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 84 78 87 88 89 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 107 95 77 90 11 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -5 -5 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 174 123 72 26 -21 -113 -220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.5 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.1 96.6 97.1 97.6 98.0 99.0 100.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 41 29 21 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.9 96.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/16/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.35 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.57 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 17.7% 11.3% 8.2% 7.6% 9.3% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 14.8% 7.7% 4.5% 2.1% 4.0% 3.6% 2.7% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 9.4% Consensus: 4.0% 11.0% 6.4% 4.4% 3.3% 4.5% 4.4% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/16/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/16/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 66 65 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 65 64 65 64 52 35 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 48 31 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 43 26 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT