* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/14/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 73 75 78 78 77 75 64 57 50 45 43 41 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 65 70 73 75 78 78 77 51 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 74 76 77 79 77 51 35 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 25 26 22 18 21 10 7 4 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 2 4 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 284 301 299 289 302 290 316 20 14 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.5 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 151 153 153 141 135 132 132 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 132 133 135 135 124 117 113 114 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -50.7 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 7 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 77 78 80 85 83 81 81 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 19 20 20 20 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 76 71 65 70 78 108 113 108 111 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 99 103 112 99 100 85 38 56 64 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 8 7 3 -4 -3 -9 -7 -11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 253 271 280 244 215 132 29 -54 -98 -114 -118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.6 22.5 22.3 22.1 21.8 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.4 94.5 94.5 94.9 95.3 96.5 97.6 98.4 98.8 98.9 98.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 6 4 3 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 22 24 26 28 29 20 17 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -7. -5. -2. -0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -11. -15. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 13. 13. 12. 10. -1. -8. -15. -20. -22. -24. -24. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.0 94.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 10.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.21 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.61 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.6% 40.6% 28.3% 22.4% 12.5% 10.4% 11.1% 10.8% Logistic: 19.7% 40.2% 23.7% 14.8% 7.4% 7.1% 5.4% 7.4% Bayesian: 15.9% 4.8% 1.8% 7.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 10.0% Consensus: 19.8% 28.5% 17.9% 14.9% 7.3% 5.9% 5.6% 9.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/14/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 6( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 4( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 73 75 78 78 77 51 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 65 64 67 69 72 72 71 45 29 23 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 66 66 65 39 23 17 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 58 57 31 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT