* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 67 67 69 72 71 69 67 64 61 58 55 54 53 52 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 67 67 69 72 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 66 68 70 72 72 47 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 25 29 26 22 15 9 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 0 2 4 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 285 292 302 300 291 305 281 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.5 28.1 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 149 151 153 151 141 135 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 133 135 135 133 124 118 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 9 8 7 10 8 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 79 80 82 83 83 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 14 16 18 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 87 84 82 74 87 89 109 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 100 97 108 97 97 79 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 7 5 5 3 1 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 190 208 219 202 174 118 23 -65 -157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.5 22.7 22.7 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.8 94.9 95.3 95.6 96.6 97.6 98.5 99.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 20 22 25 27 28 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 12. 11. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.3 94.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.17 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 27.0% 15.1% 8.6% 7.7% 10.1% 11.1% 11.4% Logistic: 10.6% 28.1% 13.8% 8.7% 4.7% 6.3% 6.0% 8.4% Bayesian: 7.7% 3.9% 0.9% 4.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 16.3% Consensus: 10.1% 19.6% 9.9% 7.2% 4.5% 5.6% 5.7% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/14/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 65 67 67 69 72 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 61 63 63 65 68 42 29 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 58 60 63 37 24 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 52 55 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT