* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/14/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 26 26 30 27 29 35 41 48 58 60 57 52 44 37 V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 26 26 30 27 29 35 41 48 58 60 57 52 44 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 29 26 23 22 20 19 19 21 26 32 42 49 52 49 43 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 44 41 38 35 24 22 13 6 3 3 5 20 37 40 35 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 2 3 7 0 0 -2 -2 -2 6 5 6 3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 237 243 250 259 266 247 267 255 277 55 296 194 208 200 211 218 228 SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.7 26.3 26.7 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 26.1 25.1 23.9 22.0 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 108 109 109 109 111 116 120 125 130 131 132 132 116 108 101 91 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 98 98 97 99 102 104 107 109 110 111 111 99 94 89 81 73 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -55.2 -55.3 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.9 -55.7 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 6 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 44 41 40 39 40 45 46 47 51 53 55 53 43 34 35 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 15 15 19 17 18 21 23 25 28 31 31 30 28 21 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 13 8 7 18 16 25 22 21 29 42 48 59 62 -68 -37 200 MB DIV -7 -2 5 37 33 40 20 18 12 28 28 80 47 37 26 17 25 700-850 TADV 12 18 17 10 10 5 5 2 5 4 4 12 6 -24 -28 -31 1 LAND (KM) 1723 1844 1964 2080 2195 2400 2266 2102 1952 1803 1653 1497 1375 1329 1438 1680 1257 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.5 27.5 28.5 29.6 30.7 31.9 33.4 35.3 37.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.5 34.6 35.8 36.9 38.0 39.9 41.5 42.8 43.8 44.5 44.4 43.6 42.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 6 7 9 11 14 17 20 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 7 8 12 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -9. -14. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -1. -4. -4. -1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 8. 6. 2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -9. -5. -8. -6. -0. 6. 13. 23. 25. 22. 17. 9. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.9 33.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/14/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.99 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/14/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 28 26 26 30 27 29 35 41 48 58 60 57 52 44 37 18HR AGO 35 34 31 29 29 33 30 32 38 44 51 61 63 60 55 47 40 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 29 33 30 32 38 44 51 61 63 60 55 47 40 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 29 26 28 34 40 47 57 59 56 51 43 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT