* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/14/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 30 28 26 31 28 27 34 40 47 55 58 59 52 42 33 V (KT) LAND 40 34 30 28 26 31 28 27 34 40 47 55 58 59 52 42 33 V (KT) LGEM 40 33 28 25 24 22 21 21 23 27 33 42 50 55 53 47 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 38 41 46 42 35 26 30 16 9 6 4 7 19 29 45 45 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 3 7 0 1 -2 -5 -3 0 6 9 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 240 240 247 256 263 259 249 248 232 305 272 212 202 205 214 213 220 SST (C) 25.1 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.6 26.1 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 26.9 26.0 25.7 23.7 21.9 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 106 108 108 109 110 115 125 129 130 133 133 123 115 113 100 91 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 97 97 98 99 101 109 111 110 111 111 103 98 98 89 82 74 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -54.4 -54.7 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -54.9 -54.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 6 6 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 41 38 38 43 47 47 50 53 56 53 47 40 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 18 17 17 21 19 19 23 24 26 29 32 35 35 33 28 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 20 14 16 22 23 29 30 18 36 68 59 43 26 7 16 200 MB DIV -2 -8 -4 2 50 24 -13 5 14 8 12 50 64 67 66 43 22 700-850 TADV 5 7 12 13 8 14 3 2 2 4 2 9 12 7 -23 3 2 LAND (KM) 1631 1747 1863 1985 2107 2330 2296 2128 1966 1820 1661 1492 1343 1255 1318 1559 1357 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.2 25.6 26.1 26.5 27.4 28.4 29.5 30.6 31.7 33.1 34.8 36.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.6 33.7 34.8 35.9 37.1 39.2 41.0 42.4 43.7 44.6 45.0 44.9 43.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 13 16 21 24 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 8 7 13 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -13. -16. -21. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. -4. -5. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 11. 9. 6. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -14. -9. -12. -13. -6. -0. 7. 15. 18. 19. 12. 2. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.8 32.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/14/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/14/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 34 30 28 26 31 28 27 34 40 47 55 58 59 52 42 33 18HR AGO 40 39 35 33 31 36 33 32 39 45 52 60 63 64 57 47 38 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 32 37 34 33 40 46 53 61 64 65 58 48 39 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 33 30 29 36 42 49 57 60 61 54 44 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT