* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102013 09/13/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 40 43 48 55 53 49 47 44 43 40 39 38 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 40 43 48 55 53 49 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 38 36 34 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 24 20 20 13 9 12 5 9 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 1 3 8 6 4 0 1 1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 261 248 255 267 272 281 228 269 306 236 207 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.1 28.1 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 142 140 143 147 151 151 144 136 136 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 125 124 121 126 131 135 135 127 119 119 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -50.9 -51.3 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 9 7 7 6 7 7 10 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 82 81 85 87 86 84 85 85 84 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 12 14 15 18 21 18 13 12 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 110 112 115 121 111 102 101 102 97 108 95 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 76 85 97 107 141 114 148 106 128 115 84 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 1 2 15 18 7 -10 0 11 16 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 152 138 126 118 109 127 148 138 76 21 -82 -184 -283 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.6 19.8 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.9 95.2 95.8 96.6 97.6 98.6 99.6 100.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 0 2 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 16 15 16 18 23 27 22 14 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -17. -15. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 6. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 18. 25. 23. 19. 17. 14. 13. 10. 9. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.8 94.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 TEN 09/13/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.34 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.54 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.0% 8.8% 5.7% 4.8% 7.3% 8.1% 12.0% Logistic: 7.0% 17.3% 7.3% 6.6% 2.8% 8.5% 24.4% 40.4% Bayesian: 1.7% 3.4% 0.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 11.2% Consensus: 4.5% 11.6% 5.6% 4.5% 2.6% 5.3% 10.9% 21.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 TEN 09/13/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 TEN 09/13/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 40 43 48 55 53 49 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 39 44 51 49 45 31 25 24 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 34 39 46 44 40 26 20 19 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 31 38 36 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT