* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/13/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 65 58 51 41 35 37 32 38 42 47 53 59 62 62 56 V (KT) LAND 75 71 65 58 51 41 35 37 32 38 42 47 53 59 62 62 56 V (KT) LGEM 75 71 66 61 56 49 47 47 46 49 54 60 69 77 81 73 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 24 31 38 42 30 16 24 14 8 5 0 7 21 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 1 -5 -4 1 8 -1 -1 -1 -5 -1 0 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 255 255 242 240 247 251 253 241 244 226 194 158 195 204 209 211 220 SST (C) 24.9 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.5 27.1 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.8 26.2 25.3 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 106 107 108 110 114 119 124 129 131 133 132 134 117 109 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 94 95 96 97 99 101 104 107 110 110 110 110 112 99 93 85 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -54.4 -54.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 -0.3 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 5 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 53 49 47 45 42 35 37 40 43 45 48 49 49 41 38 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 25 23 20 18 17 22 18 22 23 24 26 29 32 34 30 850 MB ENV VOR 54 38 36 32 24 17 18 30 25 22 12 9 16 54 69 80 46 200 MB DIV 64 32 10 0 -8 -3 34 12 -11 15 -8 19 53 65 15 22 24 700-850 TADV 29 24 18 10 5 7 8 18 4 8 5 2 4 10 2 -16 -6 LAND (KM) 1289 1370 1455 1558 1661 1894 2129 2364 2231 2083 1932 1783 1644 1539 1413 1297 1243 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 26.2 27.1 28.1 29.0 29.9 31.0 32.2 33.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.4 30.1 30.9 31.8 32.8 35.0 37.2 39.4 41.1 42.5 43.5 44.2 44.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 8 7 6 7 8 10 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 10 8 8 15 9 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -22. -24. -26. -28. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -19. -18. -18. -16. -12. -9. -6. -3. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -11. -17. -14. -14. -13. -11. -6. -3. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -17. -24. -34. -40. -38. -43. -37. -33. -28. -22. -16. -13. -13. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 23.1 29.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.04 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 536.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 2( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 71 65 58 51 41 35 37 32 38 42 47 53 59 62 62 56 18HR AGO 75 74 68 61 54 44 38 40 35 41 45 50 56 62 65 65 59 12HR AGO 75 72 71 64 57 47 41 43 38 44 48 53 59 65 68 68 62 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 58 48 42 44 39 45 49 54 60 66 69 69 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT