* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/11/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 33 34 39 49 52 42 40 38 35 30 26 23 21 23 V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 33 34 39 49 52 36 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 29 29 32 38 41 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 20 20 17 15 13 19 38 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -6 -4 -2 -2 5 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 275 282 289 284 269 208 205 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.2 23.8 15.6 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 130 130 131 129 101 75 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 108 107 107 109 112 91 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 8 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 49 49 49 51 55 59 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 13 15 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -82 -97 -89 -87 -81 1 63 61 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 -13 4 11 1 61 82 75 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 0 2 8 15 30 56 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 940 895 850 814 784 604 307 10 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 32.9 33.3 34.0 34.6 37.0 41.0 45.8 50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.2 66.6 66.9 67.0 67.2 66.4 63.9 60.1 56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 9 17 25 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 26 33 27 26 20 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 1. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -28. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 1. 3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. 4. 14. 17. 7. 5. 3. -0. -5. -9. -12. -14. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.6 66.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.36 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 8.3% 6.0% 4.8% 4.0% 6.3% 5.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.4% 2.3% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 33 33 34 39 49 52 36 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 35 40 50 53 37 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 37 47 50 34 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 31 41 44 28 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT