* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/10/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 71 75 79 81 77 71 61 51 44 38 34 33 34 36 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 71 75 79 81 77 71 61 51 44 38 34 33 34 36 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 67 72 76 79 75 67 58 50 43 38 34 32 31 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 7 5 8 14 13 19 22 26 27 27 28 33 32 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 -3 0 0 2 0 7 3 1 3 0 0 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 21 17 26 125 154 180 209 240 234 246 253 251 245 252 253 258 241 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.8 25.5 25.4 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.6 27.4 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 130 126 122 109 108 105 107 110 112 115 117 119 128 132 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 123 118 114 100 98 94 96 98 101 103 104 106 112 114 116 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 70 72 64 56 45 39 35 33 36 38 41 43 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 27 29 29 30 28 26 22 18 15 12 11 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 143 136 119 126 139 126 132 88 73 48 32 24 4 8 2 0 -9 200 MB DIV 75 64 50 62 103 129 107 -3 -33 -34 -21 -9 1 5 5 5 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 4 5 13 10 6 0 -3 -8 -3 -5 -2 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1118 1166 1217 1253 1295 1326 1359 1419 1547 1723 1950 2194 2419 2523 2384 2211 2048 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.7 17.5 19.4 21.1 22.6 23.6 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.9 28.3 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.6 30.1 30.7 31.9 33.6 35.8 38.2 40.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 8 9 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 20 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -9. -16. -21. -25. -26. -27. -25. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 17. 11. 1. -8. -16. -22. -26. -27. -26. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.7 27.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.78 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 27.5% 20.0% 10.1% 8.2% 11.4% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 22.9% 9.8% 4.2% 2.6% 7.2% 3.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 6.9% 19.1% 4.5% 2.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 23.1% 11.4% 5.5% 4.0% 6.6% 5.3% 0.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 7( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 67 71 75 79 81 77 71 61 51 44 38 34 33 34 36 18HR AGO 60 59 63 67 71 75 77 73 67 57 47 40 34 30 29 30 32 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 64 68 70 66 60 50 40 33 27 23 22 23 25 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 58 60 56 50 40 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT