* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/10/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 44 45 46 45 47 53 52 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 44 45 46 45 47 53 40 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 43 43 43 46 49 38 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 21 23 19 28 25 26 26 33 38 74 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -4 -1 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 6 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 211 225 245 247 259 275 287 276 234 222 251 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.6 24.5 17.1 12.9 9.7 8.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 136 135 133 135 132 132 105 78 73 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 117 114 112 110 110 108 112 93 74 71 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -54.0 -54.9 -54.1 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 48 43 42 45 44 43 42 50 54 57 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 14 14 14 12 11 12 17 21 14 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -32 -62 -77 -68 -92 -92 -66 34 110 5 -39 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 10 -22 -2 0 -26 7 37 64 81 33 -34 -85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 12 6 5 3 -4 1 5 14 -35 -58 -111 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1184 1127 1075 1028 985 905 779 627 393 109 -11 661 1288 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 31.0 31.9 32.6 33.2 34.2 35.4 37.1 40.2 44.6 49.3 54.2 59.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.9 65.0 65.0 65.2 65.4 65.9 66.0 65.7 63.8 60.1 54.1 46.0 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 6 8 13 21 29 33 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 16 15 17 21 31 23 33 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -15. -26. -41. -49. -55. -57. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -2. 3. -7. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 12. 18. 17. -3. -24. -31. -35. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.1 64.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.30 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 9.5% 6.7% 5.1% 4.0% 5.8% 4.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 6.8% 4.7% 5.1% 1.5% 7.7% 3.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.5% 3.8% 3.4% 1.8% 4.5% 2.7% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 42 44 45 46 45 47 53 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 41 42 41 43 49 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 36 37 36 38 44 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 28 29 28 30 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT