* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/10/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 76 83 84 83 79 71 59 47 37 29 28 32 31 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 76 83 84 83 79 71 59 47 37 29 28 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 66 72 77 83 80 72 64 56 48 40 34 30 28 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 4 4 12 18 18 25 26 35 40 43 41 38 31 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 1 0 -2 0 3 1 8 4 0 0 0 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 61 38 39 47 134 165 185 203 235 232 235 243 255 251 260 257 272 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.5 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.7 26.2 26.7 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 132 128 119 108 106 106 107 108 110 111 115 120 130 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 129 124 120 111 99 97 95 95 95 97 98 102 106 114 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.1 -53.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -53.4 -54.3 -55.1 -54.8 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 69 70 72 70 59 45 38 35 32 33 35 36 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 28 29 31 32 32 32 30 28 24 20 16 14 14 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 120 136 142 135 117 127 121 121 86 68 67 56 46 39 46 27 22 200 MB DIV 70 80 91 67 59 123 102 122 72 4 -22 -16 -3 0 12 19 2 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 1 4 13 13 12 6 7 8 6 5 0 2 LAND (KM) 949 1011 1074 1119 1168 1259 1273 1314 1404 1539 1701 1889 2100 2320 2446 2241 2043 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.7 16.3 18.1 20.1 22.1 23.6 24.7 25.4 25.9 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.3 26.9 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.7 30.5 31.7 33.2 35.0 37.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -7. -15. -20. -23. -22. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 28. 29. 28. 24. 16. 4. -8. -18. -25. -27. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.2 26.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.85 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.81 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 47.6% 35.7% 22.3% 12.8% 27.2% 22.5% 0.0% Logistic: 13.3% 43.7% 21.4% 6.5% 5.3% 25.5% 23.4% 8.4% Bayesian: 12.7% 33.9% 8.8% 2.4% 0.9% 9.6% 5.5% 0.1% Consensus: 13.5% 41.7% 21.9% 10.4% 6.3% 20.8% 17.1% 2.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 9( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 66 71 76 83 84 83 79 71 59 47 37 29 28 32 31 18HR AGO 55 54 59 64 69 76 77 76 72 64 52 40 30 22 21 25 24 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 61 68 69 68 64 56 44 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 57 58 57 53 45 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT