* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/09/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 58 65 77 90 97 101 97 90 83 73 65 58 54 55 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 58 65 77 90 97 101 97 90 83 73 65 58 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 57 64 79 91 91 81 72 63 57 52 48 45 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 6 7 4 5 8 9 21 21 19 19 27 30 39 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 9 9 10 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 69 64 67 50 48 73 169 186 225 240 250 242 239 235 237 233 252 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.1 27.5 27.0 25.9 25.3 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.6 26.0 26.5 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 142 142 138 137 129 124 113 107 104 107 108 110 114 119 130 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 138 133 131 122 116 104 98 94 95 96 97 102 107 118 120 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -53.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 75 72 70 69 64 59 46 39 33 32 34 38 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 23 24 26 29 33 34 35 32 30 28 24 22 20 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 101 120 133 130 142 151 152 143 137 116 84 77 62 58 48 45 46 200 MB DIV 65 93 93 109 114 95 99 110 110 75 -1 -12 6 7 2 5 27 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 7 12 16 16 5 9 4 9 5 4 LAND (KM) 673 769 867 959 1054 1183 1278 1332 1359 1409 1519 1671 1858 2061 2306 2436 2273 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.6 17.2 19.1 20.9 22.6 23.9 24.8 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.6 24.6 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.5 29.2 29.6 30.1 30.6 31.6 33.0 34.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 15 12 9 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 11 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 16. 17. 13. 9. 6. 0. -4. -7. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 25. 37. 50. 57. 61. 57. 50. 43. 34. 25. 18. 14. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.5 23.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/09/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.82 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.57 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 29.4% 18.2% 7.8% 6.9% 11.4% 24.9% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 46.9% 21.0% 4.5% 3.4% 15.8% 25.0% 34.0% Bayesian: 6.4% 18.3% 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 5.7% 22.1% 35.0% Consensus: 8.0% 31.5% 14.2% 4.3% 3.6% 10.9% 24.0% 23.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/09/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 6( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 51 58 65 77 90 97 101 97 90 83 73 65 58 54 55 18HR AGO 40 39 45 52 59 71 84 91 95 91 84 77 67 59 52 48 49 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 50 62 75 82 86 82 75 68 58 50 43 39 40 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 37 49 62 69 73 69 62 55 45 37 30 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT