* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092013 09/09/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 56 68 80 92 99 100 96 88 80 67 57 52 55 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 56 68 80 92 99 100 96 88 80 67 57 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 56 70 84 92 89 78 68 59 52 45 39 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 9 7 6 5 3 9 6 14 21 21 24 37 43 40 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 2 4 10 5 3 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 63 70 60 58 51 75 160 150 202 228 250 252 238 227 239 247 234 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.3 26.8 25.6 25.3 25.0 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.5 27.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 141 142 140 136 127 122 110 107 104 107 111 115 119 129 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 138 139 135 129 119 113 101 97 93 96 101 105 108 116 118 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -52.6 -53.2 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 80 80 82 80 78 75 72 71 61 51 42 37 34 34 36 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 22 24 27 30 34 35 35 33 30 27 22 18 15 19 850 MB ENV VOR 80 93 114 125 124 143 132 153 154 157 117 92 78 61 44 28 38 200 MB DIV 29 57 88 95 108 120 83 111 90 58 14 -13 -26 -9 0 5 26 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 7 11 9 11 3 8 4 4 -1 LAND (KM) 544 648 755 858 962 1117 1219 1320 1388 1452 1520 1616 1794 2062 2322 2454 2281 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.8 16.1 17.7 19.4 21.1 22.4 23.3 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.3 23.3 24.4 25.4 26.4 27.9 28.8 29.5 30.2 31.0 31.7 32.6 34.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 11 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 16 15 13 8 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 10 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. -0. -5. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 17. 19. 18. 16. 11. 5. -2. -8. -11. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 33. 45. 57. 64. 65. 61. 53. 45. 32. 22. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 22.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 NINE 09/09/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.84 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 26.6% 15.3% 7.7% 6.7% 10.4% 23.1% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 48.2% 21.2% 4.8% 4.6% 26.7% 48.8% 59.4% Bayesian: 6.7% 33.7% 5.6% 0.7% 0.3% 13.8% 42.7% 74.2% Consensus: 8.1% 36.2% 14.0% 4.4% 3.9% 17.0% 38.2% 44.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 NINE 09/09/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 45 50 56 68 80 92 99 100 96 88 80 67 57 52 55 18HR AGO 35 34 39 44 50 62 74 86 93 94 90 82 74 61 51 46 49 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 42 54 66 78 85 86 82 74 66 53 43 38 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 43 55 67 74 75 71 63 55 42 32 27 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT