* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP122013 09/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 44 48 52 55 57 60 63 66 70 73 78 84 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 35 33 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 33 31 30 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 6 7 9 2 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -3 -4 -2 -2 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 263 260 279 277 287 286 316 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 155 150 144 141 141 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 8 9 7 8 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 70 68 66 63 62 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 26 33 42 44 36 51 49 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 2 -6 9 -6 -17 22 16 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 248 198 105 40 -3 -8 -12 -15 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.7 109.3 109.7 110.1 110.5 110.8 111.0 111.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 17 17 15 11 7 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 28. 31. 35. 38. 43. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.0 108.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122013 LORENA 09/06/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 20.2% 18.6% 13.7% 9.9% 15.1% 14.8% 15.4% Logistic: 2.2% 9.4% 5.2% 2.4% 1.8% 5.0% 3.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 10.1% 7.9% 5.4% 3.9% 6.7% 6.2% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122013 LORENA 09/06/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##