* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122013 09/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 46 50 54 57 59 63 66 70 74 79 84 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 46 50 54 57 59 63 66 70 74 79 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 40 41 42 43 45 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 5 2 5 2 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -5 -1 -3 -3 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 110 110 118 140 125 102 92 153 88 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 155 150 148 147 147 144 142 141 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 8 7 8 6 8 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 71 70 68 65 64 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 40 34 35 46 29 50 44 64 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 21 28 19 -9 9 -11 32 17 45 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 231 243 264 289 337 223 172 161 147 147 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.9 21.4 21.6 21.8 21.8 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.0 107.6 108.2 108.9 109.8 110.4 110.7 110.8 110.8 110.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 35 25 14 10 11 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 33. 36. 40. 44. 49. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 106.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122013 TWELVE 09/05/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 22.6% 20.3% 15.2% 0.0% 17.3% 16.5% 18.4% Logistic: 10.4% 35.3% 23.4% 13.0% 9.2% 35.5% 51.9% 14.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 3.2% 4.2% 0.4% Consensus: 7.3% 21.6% 14.7% 9.5% 3.2% 18.7% 24.2% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122013 TWELVE 09/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##