* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 47 51 55 59 62 62 62 60 60 59 59 61 62 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 47 51 55 59 62 62 62 60 60 59 59 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 46 49 54 58 61 62 63 63 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 4 4 14 16 17 22 21 27 28 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 3 3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 255 294 308 236 264 243 268 237 253 227 239 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.5 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 152 152 149 152 153 152 153 159 164 161 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 142 141 136 137 137 135 134 141 146 144 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 59 59 59 60 59 62 64 65 66 62 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 51 54 58 54 42 50 36 47 29 37 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 52 44 61 54 27 50 53 52 44 61 46 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 3 0 -1 1 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 142 67 24 53 58 108 201 322 441 569 760 1012 1274 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 20.2 21.3 22.5 23.6 24.7 26.2 28.0 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.3 66.8 67.4 67.8 68.2 68.8 69.0 69.1 69.1 68.7 67.6 65.8 63.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 10 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 32 33 33 34 49 55 49 50 45 43 36 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. -0. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 20. 24. 27. 27. 27. 25. 25. 24. 24. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 66.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.89 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 23.6% 14.2% 8.2% 7.3% 10.5% 16.5% 18.2% Logistic: 7.2% 47.1% 28.5% 15.5% 8.2% 18.2% 14.3% 16.1% Bayesian: 4.1% 15.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% Consensus: 6.1% 28.6% 15.1% 8.1% 5.2% 9.9% 10.4% 11.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 45 47 51 55 59 62 62 62 60 60 59 59 61 62 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 42 46 50 54 57 57 57 55 55 54 54 56 57 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 40 44 48 51 51 51 49 49 48 48 50 51 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 35 39 42 42 42 40 40 39 39 41 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT