* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP112013 09/01/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 63 61 53 44 36 32 31 31 31 32 33 35 37 41 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 63 61 53 44 36 32 31 31 31 32 33 35 37 41 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 66 64 61 52 43 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 9 11 10 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 2 1 1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 247 215 190 180 176 153 110 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 124 121 119 113 112 113 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 60 61 57 53 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 15 14 12 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -4 -11 -4 1 0 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 14 11 -9 -5 -8 -5 3 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 0 0 1 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 604 563 523 501 481 460 468 468 483 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.6 115.6 115.7 115.8 115.9 116.0 116.0 116.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 3. 1. -7. -16. -24. -28. -29. -29. -29. -28. -27. -25. -23. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.3 115.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 7.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##