* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP112013 09/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 66 66 61 54 47 41 39 39 39 40 40 41 43 46 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 66 66 61 54 47 41 39 39 39 40 40 41 43 46 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 66 67 66 58 50 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 11 10 12 9 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 1 -2 -2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 276 254 238 203 195 178 141 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 125 124 122 119 117 114 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 63 61 62 54 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 13 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -12 -17 -10 -17 1 -5 2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 32 7 0 1 -15 -12 -2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 -1 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 677 638 601 571 542 505 500 504 507 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.4 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.0 116.0 116.1 116.1 116.2 116.3 116.5 116.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 11. 11. 6. -1. -8. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. -14. -12. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.7 115.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.9% 7.8% 5.4% 3.8% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 12.6% 1.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##