* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNAND AL062013 08/26/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 39 42 47 52 56 59 61 63 65 65 65 67 V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 6 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 2 3 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 21 325 351 348 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 146 145 145 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 132 131 130 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 10 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 74 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 40 38 14 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 59 58 27 33 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 7 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -59 -102 -146 -179 -224 -326 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.3 98.0 98.7 99.3 99.9 101.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 4 9 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.1 97.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062013 FERNAND 08/26/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.87 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.61 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 15.4% 9.9% 6.9% 6.4% 9.3% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 30.8% 24.0% 22.4% 11.2% 17.2% 20.0% 17.8% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 6.0% Consensus: 4.7% 15.5% 11.4% 9.8% 5.9% 8.9% 10.3% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062013 FERNAND 08/26/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062013 FERNAND 08/26/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 31 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT