* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/24/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 39 37 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 39 37 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 35 30 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 8 10 8 10 6 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 194 179 207 240 170 188 167 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.2 24.9 23.8 22.5 21.5 20.9 20.7 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 125 112 100 86 74 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 4 2 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 65 62 58 57 48 42 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 19 18 14 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 79 80 59 49 39 17 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 91 102 55 6 12 15 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 10 8 3 3 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 320 249 205 213 192 134 118 132 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.9 23.8 24.6 25.4 26.5 27.1 27.5 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.6 114.0 114.4 114.8 115.4 115.9 116.3 116.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -6. -12. -19. -25. -25. -25. -24. -21. -19. -18. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -3. -10. -19. -27. -35. -34. -34. -34. -34. -35. -35. -34. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.0 113.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##