* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092013 08/23/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 36 36 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 36 36 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 31 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 7 5 6 10 8 14 11 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 2 -1 -1 0 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 48 84 110 98 103 144 154 155 157 103 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.0 27.2 25.2 23.0 21.9 21.4 20.9 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 153 143 135 114 91 79 72 67 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 66 66 61 54 44 37 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 20 20 20 17 12 9 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 55 66 72 66 79 56 63 20 21 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 96 126 95 94 87 30 33 16 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -9 -4 1 0 0 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 549 493 447 416 388 277 253 179 129 96 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.5 23.1 24.6 25.8 26.7 27.2 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.7 113.0 113.3 113.6 114.3 114.8 115.2 115.5 115.7 116.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 13 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -8. -13. -19. -20. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. -0. -6. -15. -20. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.5 112.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092013 NINE 08/23/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.12 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 23.3% 15.7% 14.9% 0.0% 16.3% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 8.4% 5.6% 5.1% 0.0% 5.5% 4.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 NINE 08/23/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##