* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092013 08/22/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 36 40 45 46 39 29 23 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 36 40 45 46 39 29 23 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 35 33 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 7 4 7 7 4 10 10 14 16 12 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -1 -4 -3 0 -4 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 2 8 46 95 158 175 186 194 182 172 166 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 27.0 25.2 22.5 21.9 21.2 20.9 20.9 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 154 133 114 86 79 70 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 71 71 67 64 55 47 38 35 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 21 20 21 19 14 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 38 44 62 74 80 73 77 42 18 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 44 41 55 82 84 98 61 32 2 9 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -4 -2 -4 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 632 586 544 505 477 445 368 359 282 244 230 225 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.3 19.9 21.2 22.7 24.2 25.5 26.4 26.9 27.0 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.2 112.5 112.9 113.3 114.2 115.1 115.8 116.4 116.9 117.1 117.1 117.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 18 16 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 15. 17. 17. 16. 13. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 1. -6. -13. -16. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 16. 9. -1. -7. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 111.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092013 NINE 08/22/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 20.7% 19.7% 14.7% 0.0% 17.9% 16.5% 14.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.9% 6.9% 5.0% 0.0% 6.2% 5.6% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 NINE 08/22/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##