* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/18/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 28 29 30 33 34 35 37 38 38 39 42 45 48 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 28 29 30 33 34 35 37 38 38 39 42 45 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 15 14 11 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 245 247 254 241 238 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 113 113 114 116 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 104 104 104 105 107 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 41 37 34 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 29 10 0 -15 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -7 -11 -14 3 -19 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 11 13 18 17 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2229 2160 2095 2037 1982 1880 1787 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.4 40.4 41.4 42.3 43.3 45.3 47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 2 1 1 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 12. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.4 39.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/18/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.54 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 12.7% 8.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.2% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 2.2% 0.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.1% 3.9% 2.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052013 ERIN 08/18/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/18/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 28 28 29 30 33 34 35 37 38 38 39 42 45 48 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 28 29 30 33 34 35 37 38 38 39 42 45 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 26 27 30 31 32 34 35 35 36 39 42 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 22 25 26 27 29 30 30 31 34 37 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT