* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PEWA CP012013 08/17/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 63 70 75 82 83 80 71 72 68 67 65 65 65 65 64 V (KT) LAND 50 55 63 70 75 82 83 80 71 72 68 67 65 65 65 65 64 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 59 64 69 79 85 85 82 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 4 2 4 11 18 17 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 340 27 10 246 242 235 237 245 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.0 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 149 150 150 152 157 156 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 61 62 61 60 61 58 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 13 14 14 15 13 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 83 85 80 74 58 58 58 53 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 59 61 73 66 45 37 30 12 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 -1 -1 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2168 2237 2311 2385 2463 2635 2816 2780 2513 2269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.6 14.8 16.0 17.2 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 176.8 178.0 179.1 180.2 181.3 183.6 185.9 188.2 190.7 193.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 56 57 54 57 71 59 51 46 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 1. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 15. 13. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 13. 20. 25. 32. 33. 30. 21. 22. 18. 17. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 10.5 176.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012013 PEWA 08/17/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 12.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 8.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.88 14.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 7.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 11.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 8.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.52 3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.84 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 5.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 57% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.5% 68.0% 63.0% 53.0% 47.4% 57.3% 39.2% 15.1% Logistic: 37.8% 62.0% 61.1% 51.8% 46.7% 31.5% 11.4% 8.2% Bayesian: 9.0% 69.5% 57.9% 40.9% 37.1% 84.4% 85.1% 9.0% Consensus: 24.1% 66.5% 60.7% 48.6% 43.7% 57.7% 45.2% 10.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012013 PEWA 08/17/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##