* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/17/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 34 31 32 33 32 32 31 32 32 32 34 37 39 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 34 31 32 33 32 32 31 32 32 32 34 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 36 34 33 31 30 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 16 18 15 15 16 21 22 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 7 1 0 4 3 1 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 249 215 223 238 261 239 240 246 252 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.5 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.5 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 106 109 111 112 115 122 124 127 131 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 99 101 102 103 106 113 114 117 119 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 56 54 54 52 46 44 40 38 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 13 12 12 10 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 33 44 49 39 40 44 16 -7 -39 -69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 24 31 27 2 -2 5 6 -16 -4 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 2 3 3 3 8 10 10 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1911 2005 2101 2200 2233 2132 2028 1976 1876 1697 1530 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.6 22.4 23.7 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.1 37.1 38.1 39.1 41.1 43.5 45.8 48.2 50.4 52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 7 10 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.6 35.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/17/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 10.6% 7.5% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.1% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052013 ERIN 08/17/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/17/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 34 31 32 33 32 32 31 32 32 32 34 37 39 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 33 30 31 32 31 31 30 31 31 31 33 36 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 27 28 29 28 28 27 28 28 28 30 33 35 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 21 22 23 22 22 21 22 22 22 24 27 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT