* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PEWA CP012013 08/16/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 49 54 62 63 62 56 52 48 49 50 52 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 49 54 62 63 62 56 52 48 49 50 52 54 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 45 48 55 59 62 61 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 6 6 1 10 19 23 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -8 -9 -8 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 60 241 269 255 293 256 248 237 255 263 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.8 29.3 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 147 147 150 149 148 154 159 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 58 59 62 63 61 62 62 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 10 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 76 78 79 78 73 62 66 56 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 21 42 49 53 74 21 42 8 -16 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2001 2059 2122 2198 2278 2463 2667 2881 2724 2417 2139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.8 12.7 13.7 14.7 15.7 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.0 175.0 176.1 177.3 178.4 180.9 183.5 186.1 188.8 191.6 194.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 34 39 44 49 50 61 55 71 66 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 19. 27. 28. 27. 21. 17. 13. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.6 174.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012013 PEWA 08/16/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 8.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 46.0% 33.4% 23.1% 17.7% 45.0% 44.5% 27.5% Logistic: 56.9% 68.5% 70.7% 62.4% 73.3% 42.5% 20.5% 42.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 69.5% 39.0% 16.9% 57.9% 49.9% 64.2% 18.6% Consensus: 24.4% 61.3% 47.7% 34.1% 49.6% 45.8% 43.0% 29.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012013 PEWA 08/16/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##